Let them eat cake

Or, as my kids would say, “The cake is a LIE!”

Let them eat cake. | The Agonist

Iraq is the attempt to use the capital advantage of the US military to acquire the bottleneck resource of oil. It is bottleneck resources, those things which it is more expensive to shift the supply curve downward, than others. The capital advantage is not essentially American, but is the result of the leaving to the US the monopoly of global super power status. As such, it is an asset which is intrinsically linked to the position of the dollar.

The economic theory of the Bush was that the US would sell mortgage backed paper, and acquire the oil to expand the supply of this mortgage backed paper by invading Iraq and keeping the supply of oil at the point where expansion of mortgage backed paper, an exportable form of capital, was sufficient to pay the continuing trade deficit. It was not a good idea, but it was the best idea that stupid people could execute on. The coalition of the stupid was just large enough to dominate government, and since they knew that they would not do well in a smart economy, they were willing to break any law, destroy any principle, and make others pay any cost to make the Dumbconomy going. The linkage between cheap money, cheap oil and cheap land, on one hand, and invasion of Iraq on the other hand cannot be clearer. The invasion allowed both a huge spigot of government money to be poured into very specific sectors, and allowed setting interest rates far below what they could have been. These combined to prop up demand for sprawling outwards.

However, stupid people die stupid deaths. Iraq has been run by very stupid people. While not at the level of World War I bad generalship, an essential economic reality eluded them. That reality is that since the fight was over oil, the cost of that oil in military conflict would rise, inevitably, to the cost of buying the oil in the first place. Instead of seeking real military victory, the coalition sought a fake one, and used bribes to present a better face on the progress of occupation of Iraq than was the case. As we have seen from the recent Basra uprising, the shia militias understand that their acceptance of the current state of affairs is a very valuable thing, and they can, and will, at any time those bribes ebb in value, be able to attack critical points of the government. The United States, has, in effect, surrendered to the rebel forces, and pays them tribute to keep the situation in Iraq politically viable here at home – billions for tribute, but not one cent for victory. Since the children of the people who made Vietnam a disaster are now in charge of the US government, for however long it lasts, they are willing to do whatever it takes to remain in denial about their own catastrophic incompetence. Since it is more important for the current opposition party to be able to eat small greasy hors d’œvres than to govern the country – the believe if they back into power they can do less for everyone and have more freedom to just hand money to their friends – this current status will not be challenged. A few hundred dead soldiers, two hundred billion dollars of direct expenses and half a trillion in bail out costs are all to be paid by someone else.

The failure of Iraq was inevitable then, because it was a no brainer theory, and that meant it had to be run by people without brains. And so it was.